How are these playoff probabilities calculated?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/si_blogs/baseball/fungoes_blog/2007/08/wild-card-al-contenders.html
I know this is posted from a blog but I’ve seen these playoff probabilities on other websites. Does anyone know what stats they are using to calculate these probabilities? For instance, why the Yankees have a higher chance of making the playoffs than the Mariners? My assumption is they’re weighing heavily the remaining schedules of each team, but is there anything else?
I’m pretty much just interested in what are the important stats that are going into these predictions/calculations/probabilites.
Sidenote: I’ve been watching baseball my whole life but I’m only recently getting interested in stats, especially the newfangled ones, so I’m not entirely familiar with which stats are better indicators of success.
I don’t know for certain but I would assume it’s based on Percentage of games won, which might indicate percentage they will win, vs teams they played already and based on win-loss records. Plus based on “if these players get close to the stats that they have during an average year.” It’s probably based on Runs Scored and Runs allowed which is a good indicator for most teams whether they win or lose.
I have no idea. It sounded good in my head but when I wrote it it is unintelligible, so forget it.
BASEBALL : Yankees VS Rockies – part 1